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Bay Area Home Prices Dropping


If you’ve been waiting for the right time to buy a home in the San Francisco East Bay—particularly in Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek, or Martinez—2025 may be the opportunity you’ve been looking for.


2025 Home Prices Are Down — What the Numbers Say

A new chart tracking the average home prices as of April 28 each year since 2017 reveals a key trend: home prices are down 3.3% in 2025 compared to the previous year. While this may sound like bad news for sellers, it’s creating a rare moment of opportunity for East Bay homebuyers, including those who are also selling a home to buy another.




For homeowners considering a move-up or lateral relocation within the Bay Area, this price shift actually works in your favor. You might not sell your current home for the record highs we saw in 2021 or 2022—but you’ll pay significantly less for your next property. And once the market rebounds (as history shows it always does), you’ll gain equity faster in your new home.





To understand the price shift, we must look at what’s happening in the market.

Another chart comparing central Contra Costa County (which includes Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek, and Martinez) to the broader East Bay real estate market shows that the drop in prices is directly tied to increased inventory and slower sales.




Here are the stats driving that change:

  • Homes listed for sale are up 22% across the East Bay

  • The number of homes being sold is down 1%

  • There are 2.07 homes listed for every home that sells—the highest ratio since before 2019


That combination of higher supply and lower demand creates more choices and less competition for buyers. In fact, we haven’t seen buyer-friendly conditions like this in years.



If you’re a buyer who sat on the sidelines in the past few years, it’s likely because you didn’t want to waive inspections, skip appraisals, or rush into bidding wars. Good news: 2025 has brought relief.


With inventory at a six-year high and fewer buyers in the market, you can now:

  • Take time to shop for the right home

  • Negotiate favorable terms

  • Keep critical buyer protections like loan, appraisal, and inspection contingencies


The frenzied, risky market of 2021 and early 2022 has cooled, and we’re now seeing a more balanced playing field.


One often-overlooked data point shows just how much the balance of power has shifted: Canceled, expired, or withdrawn listings are up 41% in 2025. That means many sellers are realizing that if they don’t price their home competitively, it simply won’t sell. For buyers, this is great news—it creates leverage and opens the door to more negotiation opportunities.



We get it—many buyers are wondering whether to wait for mortgage interest rates to fall. But here’s the catch: when rates drop, competition will heat up again.

As soon as mortgage rates fall significantly, more buyers will jump into the market, creating bidding wars and driving prices back up. By that point, today’s opportunity will be gone.


Waiting for better rates may actually cost you more if home prices rebound sharply and competition returns.


If you’re ready to buy now, you have more room to negotiate price, terms, and even seller-paid closing costs. You can also refinance later when rates drop.



Our final chart shows the seasonal rhythms of the East Bay housing market. Historically, late summer through early winter has been the best time for buyers—when competition is lowest and price drops are most common.





If this year follows the same pattern, buyers in the second half of 2025 could see even better pricing and inventory options than we’re seeing today. But don’t wait too long—this window won’t stay open forever.



If you’re selling a home in the East Bay to buy another, it’s natural to worry that you won’t get as much for your current house as you would have two years ago. But remember:


  • You’ll pay less for your next home

  • You’ll build equity faster when the market rebounds

  • You can negotiate better terms today than in past years


Whether you're upsizing, downsizing, or relocating locally, this is one of the best buyer-friendly markets we’ve seen in a decade.



Want to learn more? Read other resources: https://www.ronmelvin.com/blog




Ready to Take the Next Step?

Whether you’re buying your first home or making a move within the East Bay, now is the time to act.


Start your home search today at ronmelvin.kw.com - search by price range, location, home features, and more—all across Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek, Martinez, and the entire San Francisco Bay Area.


Let’s find your dream home—before the market shifts again.

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