Will Bay Area Home Prices Ever Go Down?
- Ron Melvin
- Jul 22
- 3 min read
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the Bay Area real estate market—especially in Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek, or Martinez—you’ve probably asked yourself this question: Will home prices ever go down?
The short answer? They already have.
In this blog post, we’ll break down exactly what’s happening in the market, why we’ve seen price drops in 2025, and what that means for both buyers and sellers. We’ll also give you the data you need to make smart real estate decisions—and show you why now might be one of the best times in years to buy a home in Central Contra Costa County.
Image 1: Average Monthly Home Prices Since 2021
The graph above tracks the average monthly home prices in Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek, and Martinez combined from 2021 to July 2025. Here's what it tells us:
July 2025 prices have dropped below 2022 and 2023 levels.
Just last week, the average home price in Central Contra Costa County dipped below 2021 prices.
This week shows a price spike, but it’s a statistical anomaly—53% of the homes that closed were luxury properties selling for over $1 million, temporarily pulling the average upward.
Based on year-to-date data and upcoming sales, we expect prices to fall again in the coming weeks.
Looking at the long-term trend? Home prices consistently peak between April and June—the heart of the spring market—and dip again from November to February. This seasonal pattern gives buyers an edge during the fall and winter months, while sellers typically see better returns in spring.
The Broader East Bay Market Mirrors Central Contra Costa
Our second chart shows market data for Central Contra Costa County (Concord, Pleasant Hill, Walnut Creek, Martinez) on the top half, and the overall East Bay on the bottom half. Each section is labeled A through D to highlight key trends:
A. Home Prices Are Down in 2025
Buyers, this is the sign you've been waiting for. Compared to the last few years, 2025 prices are significantly lower—offering entry points that haven’t been seen since before 2021. This dip in pricing is exactly the type of opportunity savvy buyers wait for.
B. Fewer Homes Are Selling
The number of homes sold is down in 2025, meaning buyer competition has cooled. With fewer people bidding on homes, sellers are more open to negotiations, price reductions, and flexible terms.
C. More Homes Are Being Listed
The supply of new listings has jumped dramatically, pushing inventory higher and giving buyers more options. Higher inventory puts downward pressure on prices, and this trend could continue as more homeowners look to list in a shifting market.
D. Cancellations and Expired Listings Are Up
We’re seeing a big increase in the number of homes that are either withdrawn from the market or not selling. These situations often lead to off-market deals or price drops, creating valuable opportunities for buyers, including those who need to sell their current home.
What Should You Do if You’re Thinking About Buying or Selling?
Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a homeowner thinking about selling and upgrading, now is the time to have a real conversation about your goals. Prices may rise again in spring 2026, and buyers who wait could miss out on the best deals of the decade.
Buyers: You now have more homes to choose from, less competition, and more negotiating power.
Sellers: Yes, prices are down—but if you’re buying up into a bigger home, your savings on the buy-side can more than make up for a slightly lower sale price.
Learn more: Real Estate Blogs
Watch This Video for a Deeper Dive
In this video, we break down the numbers, trends, and what they mean for you. It’s a must-watch if you want to understand where the East Bay market is heading.
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